This paper argues that the next major AI drawdown may not signal a broken AI thesis. Instead, it may reflect a digestion period: a timing mismatch between rapid AI infrastructure buildout and slower enterprise adoption, workflow redesign, data readiness, governance, and monetization. The paper distinguishes between temporary market disappointment, capex tapering, bottleneck normalization, and a true thesis break.
This paper argues that the next major AI drawdown may not signal a broken AI thesis. Instead, it may reflect a digestion period: a timing mismatch between rapid AI infrastructure buildout and slower enterprise adoption, workflow redesign, data readiness, governance, and monetization. The paper distinguishes between temporary market disappointment, capex tapering, bottleneck normalization, and a true thesis break.