AI Digestion: Why a Timing Mismatch Is Not a Thesis Break

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This paper argues that the next major AI drawdown may not signal a broken AI thesis. Instead, it may reflect a digestion period: a timing mismatch between rapid AI infrastructure buildout and slower enterprise adoption, workflow redesign, data readiness, governance, and monetization. The paper distinguishes between temporary market disappointment, capex tapering, bottleneck normalization, and a true thesis break.

This paper argues that the next major AI drawdown may not signal a broken AI thesis. Instead, it may reflect a digestion period: a timing mismatch between rapid AI infrastructure buildout and slower enterprise adoption, workflow redesign, data readiness, governance, and monetization. The paper distinguishes between temporary market disappointment, capex tapering, bottleneck normalization, and a true thesis break.